Leaders from the Group of Seven (G7) nations are planning to strengthen sanctions on Russia during their upcoming summit in Japan, according to officials familiar with the discussions. The proposed measures aim to target sanctions evasion involving third countries, as well as undermine Russia’s future energy production and restrict trade that supports Russia’s military efforts. It is anticipated that G7 members will also adjust their approach to sanctions, potentially implementing an automatic ban on exports of certain goods unless they are on an approved list. While the exact scope of these new rules is still under discussion, there is an expectation that a presumption of export bans will be applied in sensitive areas related to Russia’s defence industrial base. The G7 leaders’ joint declarations, which are subject to negotiation, will be released during the summit. The G7 consists of the United States, Japan, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom.
The G7’s action on Russia comes as Ukraine’s Western allies seek ways to further tighten existing sanctions on Russia, including export controls, visa restrictions, and an oil price cap. However, some allies are cautious about a broad trade ban followed by selective exemptions. The European Union, for example, has its own approach to sanctions and is currently negotiating its 11th package of measures since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The focus of these measures primarily involves individuals and countries that circumvent existing trade restrictions. German officials emphasize the importance of precision and the avoidance of unintended consequences when formulating sanctions.
It should be noted that any changes in language by the G7 leaders, even if specifying trade bans unless exempted, may not immediately result in additional bans or changes in Russia’s behaviour. The long-term impact and overall restrictiveness of the sanctions regime are considered significant, even if the immediate substance remains unchanged. Meanwhile, Ukraine, supported by Western aid, is expected to launch major counter-offensive operations in the near future to reclaim territories in its eastern and southern regions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is anticipated to address G7 leaders during their summit in Hiroshima, either virtually or in person.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned that a G7 move to ban exports to Russia could prompt Moscow to terminate a Black Sea grain deal vital for Ukraine’s grain exports. Food security in the aftermath of the conflict is also expected to be a major topic of discussion at the G7 summit.